da Intermonte – SCIUKER FRAMES company research report

Buon pomeriggio,

di seguito e in allegato inviamo il company research report relativo a SCIUKER FRAMES a cura di Intermonte.

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Un caro saluto,
Lucrezia Pisani

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An impressive set of results, BP update on October 25^th

An impressive set of results. SCK reported a solid set of results, with growth trends exceeding expectations, prompting management to announce its intention of updating the 2022-2024 Industrial plan on October 25th to reflect a stronger start to the year and the robust order intake registered YtD, boosting visibility at least for the next 18 months (order book of Ecospace at Eu223mn). More specifically, the company closed 1H with Value of Production up 132.3% YoY to Eu83.4mn, with this total split almost equally (50.5%/49.5%) between the Industrial and Superbonus activities. This led to an increase in EBITDA to Eu19.9mn from Eu9.0mn last year, up 120.5% YoY, with a 23.9% margin composed of a 29.7% margin at the Industrial Hub and 17.9% at the 110% Superbonus business. Positive news also on the NFP, which was Eu4.9mn in the black following a negative Eu2.2mn as at the end of 2021, as the company was able to compensate the significant absorption of NWC following the material business expansion with equally strong cash generation from its Industrial business. EBITDA revised up by +21.3% on average for 2022-2024. As a consequence of the stronger-than-expected 1H and the solid order intake YtD, we are revising our numbers materially upward; these now point to 2022 VoP of Eu187mn (up 81.9% YoY, +22.2% on previous estimates), an impressive result bearing in mind that just 3 years ago SCK had turnover of Eu11.9mn. As we broadly confirm our margin expectations, adj.

EBITDA goes up by 26.7% and net profit by 35.1%. We have increased the 2023 forecasts by a similar magnitude in light of the robust order book, which should translate into revenues by the end of 2023, when the Superbonus fiscal benefit is set to decrease from 110% to 70% (although it could be subject to change by the incoming government). We are raising our estimates for 2024 as well, even if we maintain our cautious approach on the expectation of a -11.6% YoY decrease in the VoP, driven by a -40% decrease at the 110% Superbonus business, expected to contract on reduction of the fiscal benefit.

Political support for the Superbonus. In the coming months, a topic to be monitored will certainly be the evolution of the Superbonus structure once the new government takes office. However, during the election campaign, all 3 parties in the winning coalition declared themselves in favour of the Superbonus measure with the intention of making it structural, although with the application of some corrective measures that are not yet fully clear, but which probably involve the revision of the tax benefit (likely lower than 110% but higher than the pre-existing 50% Ecobonus) and extension for some years beyond the current 2025 deadline.

BUY confirmed, TP kept at Eu15.8. We confirm our BUY case on Sciuker, a company that is proving, release after release, its ability to reap the benefits of the wave of opportunities arising from the need for building renovation dictated by European targets for lowering greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, the significant FCF that will be generated over the next few years will enable the company to carry out more acquisitions, further enriching its product range and enabling it to expand into other geographical markets. Our target price of Eu15.8 per share remains unchanged despite the significant increase in estimates due to the update of the assumptions in our DCF model (WACC 8.5% from 7.5%, g from 1.5% to 2.0%) and the derating of peers.