da Intermonte – GREENTHESIS company research report

Buon pomeriggio,

di seguito e in allegato inviamo il company research report relativo a GREENTHESIS a cura di Intermonte.

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Un caro saluto,

Chiara Cattaneo

M: +39 3409597461

Mandatory Public Tender Offer at Eu2.30ps

• Mandatory Public Tender Offer at Eu2.30ps. On 5 April Planesys, Greenthesis’s main shareholder, and PATRIZIA, a mid-market strategy European infrastructure fund, announced that they had signed binding agreements for the purchase and sale of a minority stake in Greenthesis. Specifically, the transaction involves: i) PATRIZIA purchasing a 28.33% stake in Greenthesis capital (net of treasury shares) from Planesys at a price of Eu2.25 per share, cum dividend, with the overall stakes held in Greenthesis, corresponding to c.88.33% of the share capital (net of treasury shares) transferred to a NewCo at the same time; ii) upon completion of the above transaction, the NewCo will promote a public tender offer (PTO) on the remaining Greenthesis shares; iii) following successful completion of the PTO, the NewCo will be merged into Greenthesis, or, if the offer fails to reach the de-listing threshold, Greenthesis will be directly merged into the NewCo. Following the transaction, the share capital of the NewCo will be 60% owned by Planesys and 40% by PATRIZIA. The deal values Greenthesis’s equity at c.Eu340mn. The price per share of the PTO will be Eu2.30 (plus interest), cum dividend.
• FY23 results. On 10 April, Greenthesis announced 2023 results and the new 2024-28 business plan. 2023 closed with revenues of Eu173.4mn (vs. Eu171.7mn in 2022, exp. Eu190.1mn), EBITDA of Eu41.5mn, adj. EBITDA of Eu41.8mn (vs. Eu39.8mn in 2022, exp. Eu44.0mn), net profit of Eu15.8mn, adj. group net profit of Eu16.2mn (vs. Eu16.1mn in 2022, exp. Eu17.5mn) and net debt of Eu85.1mn (vs. Eu75.5mn in 2022, exp. Eu85.0mn). The company proposed a dividend of Eu0.02986ps (ex-div. date 3 June), up 60% YoY.
• New 2024-2028 Industrial Plan: the new plan confirmed the three drivers of dimensional growth, technological innovation, and integration of the various businesses. At the end of the plan, Greenthesis foresees reaching a Production Value of Eu270mn, an average gross margin of 22-24% over the five-year plan period, and a final net profit margin of c.10% on average. Investments in the period, foreseen at over Eu120mn, will be focused on the development of specific new initiatives aimed largely at the Circular Economy. As for 2024 guidance, Greenthesis expects revenues to come to around Eu250mn and an EBITDA margin of 22%-24%, partly thanks to the contribution of the acquisitions completed in recent months.
• Updated estimates and valuation. We are updating our projections, primarily to include the contribution of the two companies acquired in December and January. In detail: we are raising our 2024/25 revenue projections by 12/8%, while at operating level we are lifting our 2024/25 EBITDA projections by 14/10%. As for the valuation, we are moving our target price to Eu2.30ps, in line with the mandatory PTO price.
• Investment case. Our recommendation goes from Buy to TENDER. On our updated projections, at the PTO price the stock would trade at a 2024 EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.2x, gradually declining to 8.2x in 2026 and 7.2x in 2028. On P/E, the stock would trade at 15.8x in 2024-25, declining to 14.8x in 2028.